stset yearend, id (ID) origin (time firstyearofpeace) failure(fail) enter(time Year) exit(time .)

**Model 1**
stcox avetrade stdtrade aveweis sdweis newtotalinterv ln_rgdpc ethnic intensity PKO Shagov resconf coldwar,  cluster (ID) robust nolog

**Model 2**
stcox avetrade stdtrade newtotalinterv ln_rgdpc ethnic intensity PKO Shagov resconf coldwar,  cluster (ID) robust nolog

**Figure 1**
stcurve, hazard at1(avetrade=0) at2(avetrade=191) at3(avetrade=1168)

stcurve, hazard at1(stdtrade=363) at2(stdtrade=1632) at3(stdtrade=2900)

**Model 3**
stcox aveweis sdweis newtotalinterv ln_rgdpc ethnic intensity PKO Shagov resconf coldwar,  cluster (ID) robust nolog

**Figure 2**
stcurve, hazard at1(aveweis=-0.79) at2(aveweis=0.03) at3(aveweis=0.85)

stcurve, hazard at1(sdweis=0) at2(sdweis=0.57) at3(sdweis=1.5)

**checking proportional hazard assumption**
estat phtest

**Model 4**
streg avetrade stdtrade aveweis sdweis newtotalinterv ln_rgdpc ethnic intensity PKO Shagov resconf coldwar, cluster (ID) dist(weib) robust nolog

***ONLINE APPENDIX***

**Table A1**
**Model 1**
streg avetrade stdtrade newtotalinterv ln_rgdpc ethnic intensity PKO Shagov resconf coldwar, cluster (ID) dist(weib) robust nolog

**Model 2**
streg aveweis sdweis newtotalinterv ln_rgdpc ethnic intensity PKO Shagov resconf coldwar, cluster (ID) dist(weib) robust nolog

**Table A2**
biprobit (lasts4=avetrade stdtrade ln_rgdpc ethnic intensity PKO Shagov resconf) (biintervener=ln_rgdpc ethnic intensity PKO Shagov resconf ln_populationl)

**Table A3**
biprobit (lasts4=aveweis sdweis ln_rgdpc ethnic intensity PKO Shagov resconf) (biintervener=ln_rgdpc ethnic intensity PKO Shagov resconf ln_populationl)

**Table A4**
logit lasts avetrade stdtrade aveweis sdweis biintervener ln_rgdpc ethnic intensity PKO Shagov resconf, cluster (ID) robust nolog

**Table A5**
stcox changetradel stdtrade weischange sdweis newtotalinterv ln_rgdpc ethnic intensity PKO Shagov resconf coldwar,  cluster (ID) robust nolog

**Table A6**
stcox tradeUS weisUS newtotalinterv ln_rgdpc ethnic intensity PKO Shagov resconf coldwar,  cluster (ID) robust nolog

**Table A7**
**Model 1**
stcox avetrade stdtrade aveweis sdweis biintervener ln_rgdpc ethnic intensity PKO Shagov resconf coldwar,  cluster (ID) robust nolog

**Model 2**
stcox avetrade stdtrade aveweis sdweis newtotalinterv ln_rgdpc ethnic intensity PKO Shagov resconf,  cluster (ID) robust nolog

